September 25, 2023

EUR/USD Bullish Flags Could Deceive or Be Fundamental

In initial rounds of analysis of the US session that was published in relation to the American president, Joe Biden’s, statement to announce sanctions against Russia, the EUR/USD pair was standing in as a bullish flag pattern which has so far not morphed into a useful breakout.

EUR/USD price chart. Source TradingView

How Long Further?

As a matter of fact, the price of the pair has continued to decline, though slowly, but it is steadily entering into a further test of the bulls’ hourly reaction. In the meantime, there is a negative leaning in the market risk sentiments after a significant pivot in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine over breakaway regions.

One of those diplomatic efforts was, however, canceled on Tuesdays by the US when the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said that Russia had already begun to invade Ukraine gradually and it no longer made any sense for him to meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Lavrov had, last week, invited Blinken for a meeting over the Ukraine crisis, to which Bliken had also agreed to the meeting. Antony Blinken said he had sent a letter to the office of the Russian Foreign Minister to inform him of the cancellation of the meeting on his part. 

America’s Position on Russia

Important things to note in the diplomatic events from the US perspective are thus:

Antony Blinken said President Putin’s worrisome speech in two days reveals to everyone that he sees Ukraine as Russia’s subordinate.

Blinken said that everyone now knows that President Putin has a plan all along to invade Ukraine. He said that President Putin is flagrantly undermining the laws and rules that have maintained peace throughout Europe and the world at large.

He said further that the United States would not let Russia lay any claim to the pretense of diplomacy. He said the United States and its allies are open to diplomatic efforts, but Russia needs to show that it seriously wants diplomacy.

Furthermore, Blinken said that if the Russian Federation changes its approach towards the Ukrainian issue at hand, then the United States is prepared to resume engagement. Finally, Blinken said about the sanctions that it had been started high and it will remain so.

While the EURUSD price went down into its former counter-trendline, it continued to dip and has now caused a sideways drift, returning to far lower points in Asia. There appears to be no other way to go till the first structure is achieved in the zone of 1.1315, when support can attract some buyers. This might head to a rally eventually, a break of the overstretched bull flag resistance point in sessions to come.    

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