• USD-CHF price dropped by over 7% during the November session.
• The Federal has hinted at a slower rate hike pace.
• The pair will respond to the coming NFP data.

The USD-CHF saw its spot price pulling back swiftly in November. That was as Forex market players re-focused on the possible Fed Reserve pivot. Meanwhile, the pair slumped to 0.9360 lows, the lowest since April 2022. USD-CHF stayed around 7.8% beneath its monthly peak at its November lowest mark.

Upcoming Federal Pivot

The USD-CHF exchange rate declined as the United States dollar index (DXY) dipped. It retracement from its $115 YTD high to around $104. The drop amplified after the United States announced encouraging inflation stats. While publishing this content, BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data indicated that U.S. inflation fell by a massive percentage than anticipated.

Precisely, it plunged from September’s 8.3% to October’s 7.7%. Most indicators suggest a sustained inflation fall in the United States. Retailers such as Target and Walmart announced substantial discounts, addressing their inventories.

Moreover, the last few months have seen gas prices retreating, whereas the supply chain issues that have persisted since last year have eased. Data indicate a sharp decline in sea freight charges over the previous few months.

Thus, the easing inflation saw analysts forecasting that the Fed will introduce a slower rate hike pace in its upcoming conference. Jerome Powell confirmed this sentiment. The Fed Chain hinted that the central bank would keep increasing interest rates but slower.

The next crucial catalyst would be the upcoming United States nonfarm payroll data. Analysts expect the stats to indicate that the labor market added more than 200K jobs over the last month. The U.S. will announce PCE data.

Meanwhile, Switzerland data indicated that the PMI dropped from October’s 54.9 to November’s 53.9. Retail sales declined by 2.5% during October sessions, whereas consumer inflation stayed at 3%.

USD-CHF Forecast

The 24hr charts indicate that the USD-CHF endured massive pressure within the last few weeks. The pair dropped from parity to beneath 0.950. Moreover, it crossed the 50d and 200d Moving Averages. The two moving averages have neared a death cross.

The USD-CHF printed a bearish flag-like setup. Thus, the pair may keep plunging, with sellers targeting the 0.92500 support.